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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd