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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd